Zachary Neel
August 15, 2024 5:27 am PT
With the expectations for the Oregon Ducks as high as they currently are, it should be a pretty entertaining season for fans in Eugene.
No matter where you look, Dan Lanning’s team is projected to be among the best in the nation this year, ranked as the No. 3 squad in the nation going into 2024. They should have a good chance at winning the Big Ten Conference and making it into the College Football Playoff if everything goes according to plan.
With those expectations in place, it feels safe to assume that Oregon will be favored in almost every game that they play in, if not all of them. While the betting lines for every week haven’t yet been set, we can look at ESPN’s Football Power Index to get an idea of how things stack up.
For those unfamiliar withESPN’s FPI,it is a ranking that “relies on past performance on offense and defense, returning and transfer production and past recruiting data for players on the roster to form a rating.” In essence, it’s ESPN’s way of declaring the top teams in the nation, looking at their roster, their schedule, their percent chance to win each game, and where that ultimately lands them after the season comes to an end.
In short, they looked at Oregon’s 2024 schedule and predicted what percent chance the Ducks have to win each game. Throughout the year, the numbers will change based on past performance, injuries, and a whole myriad of variables that take place throughout the season.
Let’s take a look at what the numbers say before the season starts.
Oregon vs. Idaho Vandals — Week 1
Marc Lebryk-USA TODAY Sports
Oregon Percent Chance to Win, per FPI: 99.0%
Analysis: I think the Ducks learned their lesson playing the Georgia Bulldogs in Week 1 a couple of years ago. The cupcake game to kick off the season is once again coming in 2024, where Oregon will likely blow out the Vandals by 40-50 points at a minimum and start preparing for their Week 2 opponent at halftime.
Oregon vs. Boise State Broncos — Week 2
Syndication: The Register-Guard
Oregon Percent Chance to Win, per FPI: 92.7%
Analysis: In reality, this could be a preview of a College Football Playoff game, as Boise State is among the favorite to win the automatic bid for Group of Five conferences. Despite that, though, I don’t think we can expect a close contest. While the Broncos are a solid team, and Oregon has had a problem with them in the past, the talent disparity on these two teams is too wide.
Oregon at Oregon State Beavers — Week 3
Syndication: The Register Guard
Oregon Percent Chance to Win, per FPI: 87.0%
Analysis: It sure is going to feel strange to play this game in September. The Ducks and Beavers are on two completely different trajectories, and that could show itself in this game, with Oreogn expected to blow Oregon State out of the water.
Oregon at UCLA Bruins — Week 5
Troy Wayrynen-USA TODAY Sports
Oregon Percent Chance to Win, per FPI: 87.9%
Analysis: The first Big Ten game for the Ducks will come against a familiar foe down in Los Angeles. It will be interesting to see what UCLA looks like this year with a new coaching staff and remade roster, but even at their best I don’t think the Bruins will be able to hang with the Ducks.
For more UCLA news, check outUCLA Wire!
Oregon vs. Michigan State Spartans — Week 6
(Photo by Steve Dykes/Getty Images)
Oregon Percent Chance to Win, per FPI: Not Listed
Analysis: For some reason, the win percentage is not listed for this game between Michigan State and Oregon, but if it were, I don’t think it would be much different from what we’ve seen already. The Spartans are expected to be near the bottom of the conference this year with a new coaching staff and shell of a roster.
For more Michigan State news, check outSpartans Wire!
Oregon vs.No. 2 Ohio State Buckeyes — Week 7
Syndication: The Columbus Dispatch
Oregon Percent Chance to Win, per FPI: 65.5%
Analysis: Here’s the game we’ve all been waiting for. I’m somewhat surprised at the level of confidence that ESPN has in Oregon, giving them a 65.5% chance to win. The betting line for this game has opened at Oregon -1 at home, so we know it will be a close game, and likely one of the best games of the entire season.
For more Ohio State news, check outBuckeyes Wire!
Oregon at Purdue Boilermakers— Week 8
Steve Dykes-USA TODAY Sports
Oregon Percent Chance to Win, per FPI: Not listed
Analysis: Another game that strangely wasn’t listed by ESPN’s FPI. Like the game against Michigan State, this one should be a blowout in which Oregon has a 90% win probability, at the very least.
Oregon vs. Illinois Fighting Illini — Week 9
Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports
Oregon Percent Chance to Win, per FPI: 95.5%
Analysis: Illinois is a team that is getting a little bit of attention in the conference as a potential trap game candidate, and with this matchup coming a week before Michigan, you can see that risk for the Ducks. But in all reality, there’s no reason this game should be close.
Oregon at Michigan Wolverines — Week 10
(Photo By Gregory Shamus/Getty Images)
Oregon Percent Chance to Win, per FPI: 65.5%
Analysis: Oregon back in the Big House? I can’t wait. It will be interesting to see how good Michigan is this year after winning the national championship in 2023 and losing a good chunk of their roster, plus their head coach, to the NFL. The Wolverines should be solid, but I think Oregon will definitely be favored in this one, even on the road.
For more Michigan news, check outWolverines Wire!
Oregon vs. Maryland Terrapins— Week 11
Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports
Oregon Percent Chance to Win, per FPI: 92.7%
Analysis: For the first ever matchup between Oregon and Maryland, this one isn’t expected to be all that competitive. Maryland is going to have an interesting year with a new QB at the helm, but they could be dangerous for some teams in the middle of the conference. Ultimately, I don’t think the Ducks will have any issue.
Oregon at Wisconsin Badgers — Week 12
Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports
Oregon Percent Chance to Win, per FPI: 82.7%
Analysis: This should be a thrilling matchup in Madison late in the year, and with the history between these two teams, it could be a classic. We’re unsure what Wisconsin will look like this year in the second season under Luke Fickell, and now with Tyler Van Dyke under center, but if they meet expectations, we should be in for a good game here.
For more Wisconsin news, check outBadgers Wire!
Oregon vs. Washington Huskies — Week 14
(Photo by Ian Maule/Getty Images)
Oregon Percent Chance to Win, per FPI: 89.8%
Analysis: It feels like this is the chance at revenge that Oregon Duck fans have been waiting for. After three straight losses to Washington over the past two years, Oregon has a chance to blow out a less-talented team this year, and you know that they’re going to take very opportunity to make it a lopsided affair late in the season.
For more Washington news, check outUW Huskies Wire!
