Where should high school basketball players go? College basketball confidential (2024)

There has been one major unintended — but entirely predictable — consequence in the rise of college basketball’s three-headed transformational monster. Thanks to name, image and likeness, the transfer portal and the NCAA granting players a fifth season of eligibility after the COVID-19 pandemic, high school recruits have been devalued significantly. It’s harder than ever for freshmen to earn minutes or dollars at high-major programs.

There are exceptions, of course, and five-star prospects always will have a place. But beyond those elite few prospects, why would coaches play or pay freshmen instead of the veterans, the tested and proven Division I players, now available in what amounts to forever free agency? These days, all-conference players from mid-major programs are more valuable than four-star freshmen.

“I think even a five-star kid. You look at all those five-star kids that didn’t play and transferred this year, right?” said one mid-major head coach, granted anonymity in exchange for his candor. To that point, seven five-star players and 17 top-50 recruits from the 2023 class transferred after their freshman season. The coach continued: “I was talking to a buddy of mine who in the last three years had seven kids from a mid-major go high-major. That’s what his sell is right now: ‘We’ve moved seven kids to the high-major level, and they’ve all made six figures.'”

The theory: Most high school players should go to whatever level they’re going to play a lot right away and put up numbers.

“You produce, and you move up and you make more money,” the coach said. “You look at our level: It’s almost like the first-team, second-team all-league, that’s the recruiting list for these high-majors.”

Data supports that theory. The American Athletic Conference is a perfect example. Of the 10 players who made the All-AAC first or second team this year, one turned pro, one returned to his same school and eight transferred to high-major programs — five to SEC programs, three to the Big Ten. From the AAC, Chris Youngblood, Jason Edwards and Lu’Cye Patterson are the epitome of this approach. Youngblood went from Kennesaw State to South Florida to Alabama. Edwards went from junior college to North Texas to Vanderbilt. Patterson went from Missouri State to Charlotte to Minnesota.

“Honestly, I would tell them not to worry about which kind of level you play,” said one high-major player who transferred this offseason. “We’ve seen guys go to a small, mid-major school and work their way up — even into the NBA. I would tell (recruits) not to really worry about which level you’re playing as long as you give your all. Your talent will show.”

This offseason, 194 players transferred from low- and mid-major programs into one of the five high-major college basketball conferences — the ACC (47), Big Ten (47), SEC (40), Big 12 (36) and Big East (24). Twelve low- and mid-major conferences sent more than a half-dozen players to the big leagues this year: the AAC (29), Missouri Valley (20), Atlantic 10 (16), Mountain West (14), CAA (14), Southern (9), Ivy League (9), West Coast (8), Big West (8), Sun Belt (8), MAC (8) and Summit (7). Even three Division II players, one Division III player, an NAIA player and a Canadian college player jumped up to high-major college basketball this spring.

So when The Athletic surveyed 21 head coaches and assistants across all levels of Division I about what advice they would give a non-five-star high school recruit, we got a lot of “put up big numbers at a lower level, then get paid” responses, but not all of them agreed with that approach.

High-major head coach 1: Is it about development, or is it about playing time? If it’s about playing time, then go lower. Bottom line. If it’s about development, then go to the place you feel believes in you and you have an opportunity to grow. But the reality is, I don’t care if it’s a four-star, five-star, it’s such a small percentage of players who are ready to make an immediate impact. So that to me is the way I would look at it.

High-major head coach 2: The high school players have gotten screwed with the extra COVID year. And then the transfer portal. Those two things have really hurt high school recruiting. Now, the extra COVID year is going away after this season, so there is going to be more value in high school players, but it’s never going to be how it was even five years ago. If I was their parent, I would tell them to find the best place where you can have the best success. Once you’re high-major and proven, you stay high-major. But there are a lot of these guys who find a great value at a mid-major, go there for one year, and then they’re as recruited and coveted as anyone else.

High-major assistant coach 1: Go somewhere where you have a chance to play for sure right away.

High-major assistant coach 2: If you still really care about all the things that people used to care about — going to a great school, being developed, playing for a winning program — then you can still go to one of those places. I think if you’re strictly looking to make the most money, your best bet is to go to a lower level, play as much as you can, and know that if you do well at a lower level, then you’re going to be a hot commodity the next year on the transfer market. A four-star kid who’s not going to play isn’t going to make as much money, whereas if a four-star kid went down to a mid-major and put up good numbers, instantly he’s going to be worth more.

Mid-major assistant coach 1: A one-bid league, those aren’t dream schools to kids. But schools like ours, kids have been going to our games since sixth, seventh grade, they see us on TV, they know who we are — dream school situations. If you don’t really have a school like that, I would go somewhere you really think you could put up numbers. Because once you put up numbers, now you really have a chance to make a ton of money. But just know: You’re going there for pretty selfish reasons. Kids are f—ing young, man. This is a lot of s— for them to handle. The NBA got rid of 18-year-olds having this much money; that’s why they went to one-and-done. Kids couldn’t handle it. Their bodies are developed; their brains aren’t. They can’t handle this s—. So for a kid to have that mindset and to still be able to go somewhere and be able to do what the coaches ask — but know you’re there to put up numbers so you can go get paid — that is hard, man.

Low-major head coach 1: I would be looking for somewhere I’d have a chance to play pretty early because my chances of establishing myself as someone of value and then maybe the next time through the cycle, I could maybe earn some money on the way up as opposed to going somewhere you’re not going to play for two or three years. It’s all about production. We’re very much living in the Major League Baseball, professional baseball, where let’s just say junior college is rookie league, NAIA, low Division II is Single A, really good Division II or (low) Division I is Double A, Triple A is a mid-major and then you go to the big leagues, which is the top seven or eight leagues in the country. And once you prove it at one level, you’re going up. If you know people that play pro baseball, they tell you, gotta get at-bats. If you don’t get to play, you’re not gonna get to prove what you can do. So I think I’d be looking somewhere I could play.

Low-major head coach 2: If you want to make some real money, have an all-conference year, have a couple of great years back-to-back, get your team to the NCAA Tournament and go make $600,000 in the SEC. High school kids should not go for the most money now at a place they can’t play. Don’t chase some crazy figure at a place you can’t play because it’s gonna cost you money on the back end. Because if you don’t play, now all of the sudden your market value goes down. It goes against every fiber of my body to say, “Come here for a couple of years and then go on to a higher major and get paid more,” but honestly that’s what you have to do. I still love to sell the four-year experience, the long-term development stuff, but that’s now what people are thinking, and you have to go down that road. It makes you sick.

Mid-major head coach 1: I think there’s a track out there for a path forward where you can stay for more than one season at a school. You can develop and those guys can help build around you. It might take a little bit of time, and that’s OK. I think I’m gonna recruit four or maybe five guys in the fourth or fifth year. Who am I gonna play next year? I’m gonna play the men, not the boys.

Low-major head coach 3:Knowing what I know now and coming from a high-major, I would advise a kid to go play mid-major, mid-major plus as a freshman and have a plan to transfer out. To go get numbers, go rock out at a mid-major or mid-major plus school and get your numbers and then be able to go to a (high-major), and you’re more marketable for NIL and more marketable for playing time.

Mid-major assistant coach 2: It’s trying to create exposure going into your senior year, so like the spring and summer. I think that’s a really good opportunity to get in front of college coaches because that’s when college coaches shift their focus back to high school. If a high school kid shows some initiative to get in front of coaches, to get on college campuses, to be excited about taking visits going into their senior year, I think that puts them in a great position. If there’s a great opportunity for them, don’t hold off because you become such a low priority as the season starts. (During the season) they’re getting a sense already of who’s leaving, who’s staying, and they’re trying to plug in older kids. So the opportunity and the momentum (for high school recruits) dies down really quickly. Being aggressive for the first signing period, if you have opportunity, I think is important, especially if there’s something that’s really exciting for them and they feel like it’s a great fit.

There’s always dominoes and consequences that come with leaving a place and transferring. I think we’ll find out the consequences of those 10 or 15 years from now. I don’t think it’s like something that we’re gonna know right now, but these kids that are moving around a million different places don’t really have a home and alma mater to come back to, don’t have a real established network somewhere. Like those are valuable commodities for people that end up being kind of normal people when it’s all said and done. I don’t know exactly what the consequence of that is, but what I do know is the most important thing is you go somewhere that you really want to be, that really wants you, that gives you those opportunities.

Low-major head coach 4: Go to a place where you can play right away and improve yourself. If that’s at a mid-major, if that’s at a lower level, I think over time you’ll make just as much money as you’ll make going to a (high-major) school at that time. We had a local kid go to a high-major and he went there one year early and redshirted and probably isn’t going to play a lot this year. What if he comes to our place? He’s learning. He’s growing. He’s developing while in action. Let’s say he averages 8 points his first year as a true freshman — 8 and five. And then he ends up averaging 14 points and six, seven, eight rebounds. And that’s at probably the minimum his sophom*ore year. He’s going to be one of the hottest commodities for a (high-major) school in all of college basketball.

Mid-major head coach 2: You gotta search out a place that believes in player development, search out a place that has shown the ability to take high school guys and develop them. Make sure the system fits what you do well. The key to success for any player in terms of making a decision is really threefold: “Am I going to develop? Does the system fit me? Is there an opportunity for me to play?” I think when you have those things, it gives you the best opportunity as a young player to be successful.

High-major head coach 3: My advice would be no different than it was 20 years ago: Go to the school that you feel the most comfortable, that you have a great relationship with the coach, the style of play, the degree. Still today, I’m a 100 percent believer, it’s about relationships, it’s about winning, it’s about happiness.

High-major head coach 4:Every kid’s different. If your son grew up wanting to play at Kansas, and he’s not going to play much, I’d tell him to go redshirt at Kansas and then get in the pipeline, learn, adjust and go on. If it’s a kid that needs money, I’d say go play and then put up numbers and then transfer and get money.

High-major head coach 5: They got to know who they are, first of all. Are you the 31st-ranked player in the country, and there’s a great chance you’re one-and-done? Are you the 31st player in the country, and you just got a huge upside, but there’s no way you’re leaving after one year? I wouldn’t go somewhere that signs four to five guys in the portal every spring. I just wouldn’t do it. Why? Why risk it? Because when you’re one of those (top high school) guys, you still have leverage. You’re a good player. You’re ranked high. You’re not an elite guy in other people’s minds, but you’re knocking on that door. Like you’re 30 to 150.

But that’s what kids keep doing: going places and the schools are taking high-level high school guys, then they go and sign four or five 22-, 23-year-olds. I think this is going to soften because we’re gonna get past this COVID year. So after next year, this is going to soften a little bit. It’s easier for the kid coming in after it softens because you’re not going to have as many people in the cohort. You’re not going to have as many older people in the cohort because people aren’t searching out a fifth year.

Mid-major assistant coach 3: You gotta pick a school and pick a level that you feel like you can grow with and that they have a proven track record of NIL. I don’t know if I would make my entire decision based on NIL, especially if I was a high school kid. Do they have a proven track record of high school kids developing through their program and making it? I don’t know if I would choose a school if the last two or three years their best players were transfers. That’s where a lot of high school kids are messing up is they’re choosing schools and then you look up and that particular school hasn’t done a very good job with high school kids.

Mid-major head coach 3: Find an opportunity that you feel like you can play right away if there is one. Maybe even if it’s not the highest level that’s recruiting you, fine. But if you feel like there’s a path to get on the floor and an opportunity to play, that’s gonna be your fastest way to: A) develop, B) increase your marketability to get more NIL. Our conversations have shifted a lot. I was laughing with a couple of younger players that we’ve gotten here recently that in years past, you would be sitting there and parents would be asking about the length of my contract. Hey, do you plan on being here for a little while?

Now those questions aren’t even coming up. From my standpoint, at the level that I’m at, there’s no sense in shying away from the fact that you kind of have to reevaluate what’s best for everybody at the end of every year. And if somebody has an opportunity, like we’ve had players here the last few years that have had opportunities to go increase what they’re making five and six, seven times as much, then we’re going to be all for it. Because ultimately if the players are getting to that level, then they’re probably helping you win games.

High-major head coach 5: My advice would be not to have an agent and to keep your circle as small as possible. To us, the most desirable recruits are the ones where it’s just mom and dad or just mom and high school coach because I feel like the more people that are in an equation, the more variables and the better chance for something to not go well.

Mid-major head coach 6: You better go someplace where you’re going to play and develop. The worst thing you can do is go someplace early in your career and not have an opportunity to play and develop because ultimately that’s just going to hurt your career trajectory. The best players want to play and have an opportunity. Two, it’s going to hurt your development if you want to have any chance to play professionally after. And three, it hurts your brand. If you’re trying to build your brand, and maybe one day really have an opportunity to take advantage of NIL, you hurt yourself.

High-major head coach 7: Find a place that’s going to develop you.

(Top image: Dan Goldfarb/ The Athletic; photo: Ethan Miller / Getty Images)